Opinion / Politics

Arizona’s Senate Race Tightens – National Turn?

senateArizona may not be America’s bell weather, but something strange is afoot.  To understand it – and what it means for the nation – consider two facts. Tough races, Olympic mile to US Senate, come down to kick.  Second, history shows Arizona hides undecided voters.  Together, these facts make Arizona’s Senate race – and our national cycle – tighter than most recognize.

Consider Arizona’s Senate race, between Republican fighter pilot Martha McSally and Democrat Shuttle astronaut Mark Kelly.  On September 3, barely a month ago, McSally trailed Kelly by 17 points.  The race looked over.  See, https://www.salon.com/2020/09/03/martha-mcsally-down-17-points-in-new-fox-news-poll-showing-democrats-surging-in-key-states/.  But as Yogi Berra said: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

Like runners entering the final turn, or a fighter pilot pulling hard for the bead on a bogie, strange things happen in final moments. As of September 30, McSally was suddenly within six points, posting an 11-point gain over 27 days.  One poll put her within margin of error, down by two. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html; https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/709972/mcsally-internal-poll-finds-her-within-margin-of-error?unlock=P6KTFK08NIONE6QJ.

Then, adding lift to McSally’s race on October 4, three former Apollo astronauts – two of whom went to the moon – suddenly endorsed McSally, panning Kelly’s leftist agenda.  See, https://www.redstate.com/beccalower/2020/10/03/astronauts-endorse-martha-mcsally-senate-mark-kelly/. That is going to give her a boost.  Expect afterburners to light up.  If three legendary astronauts are not willing to support another astronaut, the race requires a relook.

Then turn to history, since the old standby sometimes harbors untapped wisdom.  What might 2016 polls from Arizona tell us about 2020, if anything?  True, history never repeats exactly.  That said, hints hide in numbers few bother to review.  Let us review them.  In the last week of October 2016 – interesting numbers popped in Arizona.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in Arizona as October 29, 43.5 to 42 – roughly the same lead Kelly holds on McSally by internal tracking poll. Then, the strangest turn unfolded.  Either Clinton supporters fell away, or Trump supporters emerged from the woodwork.  Maybe undecideds decided.  Either way, fortunes turned fast.  By November 1, Trump was up 45 to 43.5.  By election day, he was up 47 to 43. Trump won the state 48.1 to 44.6 – and it was over. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html; https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/arizona-president-clinton-trump.

So, what are the lessons or take-aways for the final stretch in Arizona – and the Nation? First, strange things happen down the stretch.  Ask Olympic miler John Landy, who lost “The Miracle Mile” in 1954 to Roger Bannister – in a final turn.  Landy led the entire race, by ten yards in the third lap of four.  But in a giant burst, Bannister overtook him in the fourth – never looked back.  Endorsements and endorphins, the will to win and being sure-footed count in the kick.

Second, Arizona – and by appearances the whole Nation – held a secret in 2016.  Democrat support was soft, their candidate weak, and commitment to turnout weaker; or the Republican was stronger than met the eye, private support stronger than public polls; or undecided voters tipped hard Republican – not enamored with a leftist agenda – in the final week.  Regardless, polls were wrong – and momentum edged out the early leader.  Arizona 2020 looks similar.

Finally, if Arizona is not a bell weather, the state offers insights into the national election cycle.  If McSally pulls out a win, other Senate races may end Republican, including Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Alabama, and Michigan. Moreover, swing states where Trump appears to be trailing, may prove reservoirs of soft Democrat support, hidden Republican turnout, or late-breaking undecideds that tip Trump.

Of course, politics is a fickle business – as much room to be wrong as right.  Olympic favorites fade as often as win and win as often as fade.  History too is a wandering minstrel, offering inspiration and curiously disappearing, seeming to predict the future but not always.

Still, something strange is happening in Arizona – and nationally. Many Republicans are gaining, as we enter the final turn.  The test will be who lights the afterburners, wins the kick, stays the course.  Less than 30 days and counting now.

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Bill Brown
1 year ago

First Remove every DemocRat (RED), then we can eliminate all RINO’s and “old line” Republicans.  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
1 year ago

Watching the recaps of the debate shows the Millennial Generation to be extremely scarry!  The men are mostly a bunch of wimps with no idea that they become responsible for themselves some day!  The women are scared they may actually find a man!  And, they are ground so deep in the terminal disaster called Socialism they cannot be rational!  They NEED HELP!  Eliminate the NEA and the AFT and make all Children either be home-schooled or go to Charter Schools!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
1 year ago

If we all get out and VOTE, YES we, the true AMERICAN Citizens CAN win back the House and hold the Senate!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
1 year ago

Because of the traitor Paul Ryan and the RINO’s, President only had a partial/sometimes majority!  We AMERICANS need to give OUR President a TRUE Majority in 2020!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
1 year ago

Excellent Article!  We are truly blessed in having President Donald Trump leading this Movement!  We need to develop true followers ready to continue this Movement in the event of tragedy.  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
1 year ago

Either “The State” is US or all Freedoms have been LOST!  I spent over 10 years in the Military.  To this day, my STANCE has been and is: “I will fight to the death for my Country BUT never ask me to love my Government!”  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Debra Reynolds
1 year ago

Good article, thanks! We can all use some hope.
One note though–it’s “bellwether” not “bell weather”.
An archaic term which refers to a sheep (wether is castrated ram) who wears a bell so the shepherd knows the whereabouts of the flock.

Steven Meisels
1 year ago

Keep on seeing and hearing that the senior citizens are abandoning President Trump. Democrats are scaring them that President Trump will be taking away their social security, medicare, etc. etc. It may be BS about the loss of support. However, need a high profile senior to debunk this on the national stage.

mike
1 year ago

I/we dont need another grifter is our senate. We dont want outiside influence and money from the democrats ,we do not want ‘smelly” kelly. We dont want our 2nd amendment righst besmirched by kelly and finally martha produces for us, She is low key and maybe not flashy or blatant but she is for us. Vote for martha and bounce kelly for good.

Gunny Joe
1 year ago

The man won’t say his name will not respect the Constitution, he is a gun grabber, will vote right down party lines. Most of all will not respect President Trump.
To list a few of his views, Red Flag Laws are good, wants a federal back ground check, will limit the type of guns we can buy, is right there with biden and orock we will take your guns is you don’t turn them in. Thinks roe v wade should be the law of the land, could go on but do not want you bored. All in the grand state of Arizona, this is a snake in your rock lawn, (yes know bout that was stationed in Yuma for a year back in the mid 70’s). Don’t let this man fool you Vote Red! MEGA 2.0!!!!

GT Patriot
1 year ago

Tonight’s latest CNN poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 16 %. I say Trump has him right where he wants him. CNN remarkably continues to
believe their 2016 techniques and methods work. When you combine this with their daily anti -Trump blabber, I am amazed that CNN cannot
seem to learn anything. When you hit your head against a wall a thousand times, don’t you learn to stop ?

JohnH
1 year ago

It is obvious that this board is mainly behind Trump no matter what he does. But I would like to ask you a serious question: Would you rather have taken over as President in 2016 or 2020? Which time would be the tougher shoes to fill ???

Jeanette Fenton
1 year ago

I’m most worried about the younger voters who have received so much “socializing” in schools and in the media. I hope they recognize the difference and go for Keeping America Great, not Socialist!

Gunny Joe
1 year ago

You are correct, come voting time the High School here in rural MO has the buses transport the 18 yr old’s to the polling place. No and I mean No 18 year old has the sense to cast a ballot. I was started on my second tour in Viet Nam before I could vote. no hair off my hide. I was a better voter with the added years of maturity, always voted Red in a Blue family (was I ever popular). Schools to day brain wash as dose ever media source these kids consume, they think the dem way is the only way, and commie way of life is good.

GunRunner
1 year ago

Well, hopefully the good people of Arizona learned their lesson with McCain, and will vote for a REAL Republican this time! RIP, Mr. McCain, but, honestly? I’m kinda relieved you aren’t running anymore…

JohnH
1 year ago

I have bad feeling about Trump tweet today to end work on Stimulus Bill until after he wins election. I wonder if he really wants to win election because this nation is facing many major problems that Trump did not have to deal with when he took over. Does he really want to win when he will not concede election if he does not win & not this impulsive decision that will hurt many out of work Americans & how many small businesses will close up to never open again. I ask Mr. Trump, why do this today??

JohnH
1 year ago

Today, Trump tweeted he has instructed his people to end stimulus talks until after he wins election. Why would he do this now when he will most likely lose votes from the people & small businesses that are counting on this to survive (stock market dropping already on this tweet). My opinion, the stimulus bill should be decided by the Legislative Branch & not the Executive Branch.

michael j murphy
1 year ago

AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF AMERICANS ARE FED UP WITH THE DEMOCRATS AND ALL THEIR CRAP.THEY HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF DEMOCRATS AND FAKE/FRAUD NEWS.

JohnH
1 year ago

Trump did not present any future plans at 1st debate with Biden & came across as arrogant most of the night. I think this hurt Republican party & that majority of people do not want President party to have control over both House/Senate. Trump is very impulsive & needs the checks & balances in Washington , so that Americans have a say in how America should operate.

Gunny Joe
1 year ago
Reply to  JohnH

You need to go back to the basement, don’t forget your binkie! The speaker of the house is not acting in good faith as usual of Stritch, (little Rush speak there)!

Phil Hammersley
1 year ago

Gun-grabber Kelly uses his wife’s shooting to push gun control. Nobody ever mentions the Republican judge who was KILLED by the shooter or the fact that the shooter’s mother was a Democrat bureaucrat!

Mandy
1 year ago

Perhaps many read the article about Kelly traveling to Communist China and then suddenly worth $27 million.Article on PJ media titled “Gun-Grabbing Grifter Mark Kelly Is Yet Another Democrat in Bed With the Chinese Communist Party” tells the story. Shocking and disturbing of those beholden to Communist China.

Phyllis Poole
1 year ago
Reply to  Mandy

And Russia was supposed to help TRUMP!? No one mentioned China helping the democrat party. I think the dems claim was just to keep eyes off what China was doing!

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