Opinion / Politics

Could Republicans Retake the House? Long Shot, But …

houseDo you believe in miracles?  Yes, here too.  What about political miracles?  Yes, how could we not – after 2016.  No, not talking about the presidential election, which is looking better by the week, nor the Senate which may stay Republican – against the odds. Talking about the US House, which wrongly impeached President Trump, brims with Socialists, and disrespects what many died for, our freedom.  Yes, there is a chance – just a chance – the House could flip.

First, forgive the jargon, emphasis on numbers and game theory.  What matters most is love of country, freedoms of speech, worship, assembly, self-defense, and avoiding government overreach.  Keeping faith with the past matters.  But now, with deference – consider the game.

Here are new numbers, that suggest a sea change.  They imply possibilities that did not exist a few months ago.  They suggest Americans are tired of lawlessness, attacks on Trump, endless spending, loose talk about socialism, and burbling anti-Americanism.

The surprise may be how many Americans do love this country.  We may find Americans voting their hearts, stunning the opposition.  Numbers show the spirit lives.  Coincidentally, 40 years ago Americans stunned the Soviets in that “Miracle on Ice.”  Socialists may be stunned again.

No one in the media is predicting Democrats lose the House, or Pelosi resigning, but it could happen.  Politics in the Heartland, suburbs, and cities are churning.  People are edgy, unhappy, suddenly do not trust Democrats.  Gun sales, Republican registrations, and public disaffection are up.  If the disaffected vote, things could tip. They did in 1994 – Republicans took the House.

Here is why, how, and which races might flip the House.  Note: Democrats retook control in 2018 by winning 30 House seats Republicans had won – two years earlier.  One reason is low voter turnout in every non-presidential year.  Turnout rises in presidential election years.

Concern raises turnout, too.  People are teed off.  Biden’s faltering capacity, Harris’s opportunism, spreading riots, economic distress, Supreme Court, China, border, taxes, prescription drug prices, and protecting America’s seniors – may change this cycle.

Republicans need is a “net gain” of 17 seats to retake the House and reverse socialism’s rise. News is good, as 13 needed seats are “ruby red” – districts Trump won by six points in 2016.

If Democrats have millions on hand, principles also matter. Democrats are on the wrong side of history, law and order, economic growth, taxes, and national security.  They have a record.

Changes on the fly show Republicans have depth Democrats do not.  In May 2020, California’s 25th district was won by Republican Mike Garcia, US Navy fighter pilot, son of a legal Mexican immigrant, and unabashed patriot.  His victory lit the horizon, presaging thunder in the fall.

Republicans need 17 seats – and 30 are in play. Some must be held, others retaken.  Angle of attack is different for each shot, but odds are rising – for Republicans.  In open seats, most retiring Republicans should be replaced by Republicans.  Alabama’s 1st district is solidly Republican, by 26 percent.  Likewise, Alabama’s 2nd is solid Republican, by 23 percent. Other races look good, like California’s 8th, Florida’s 3rd and 19th, Georgia’s 7th, that Trump won by 6.

Solid too are Georgia’s 9th, Illinois’ 15th, and Indiana’s 5th, along with Kansas’ 1st, Louisiana’s 5th, Michigan’s 10th, and Montana’s “at large” district.  In many, early Democrat leads vanished; trends are now red.  Same is true in New York’s 2nd, which Trump won by 9 points.

Rounding out open seats, watch North Carolina’s 2nd and 6th districts, Texas 22nd, 23rd, and 24th. These are possible losses, but Republican prospects are rising.  History matters.  Trump won the 24th by 6 points.  Republicans are solid in Oregon’s 2nd, Tennessee’s 1st, Utah’s 1st, and Wisconsin’s 5th.

All that is what you might call the “defensive line” – and it is strong.  If it holds, the game turns on how many seats Democrats lose.  Toss-ups are shifting red.  As of mid-September, a dozen toss-ups are tipping Republican, according to Real Clear Politics. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html.

At the same time, a few of the remaining 19 toss-ups – currently Democrat-leaning – must go Republican.  Several factors could make that happen.  First, if Trump gains in these states, that helps down-ticket, as moderates and Independents may give him a House he can work with.

Second, some Democrats in toss-ups are vulnerable.  In California’s 1st, the incumbent won by less than a point in 2018.  Media outlets now endorse the Republican. See, e.g., https://www.fresnobee.com/opinion/editorials/article240603301.html.

Likewise, in Georgia’s 6th, the Democrat won by a point in 2018.  The Republican opponent has a history of winning against odds. See, https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-house-6th-district-election-lucy-mcbath-karen-handel-2020.  Another district to watch is Iowa’s 2nd – where the Republican leads and is riding a wave.  Trump won that state by four points in 2016.

Surges are appearing.  In New Mexico’s 2nd, the Democrat incumbent won by less than two points in 2018.  The Republican challenger is closing – down by two.  A similar scenario marks New York’s 22nd – where the Democrat won by 1.8 points in 2018, but the Republican challenger formerly held that seat, and won it by 15.5 in 2016.  He may again.

In South Carolina’s 1st, where the Democrat won by 1.4 points in 2018, Trump walked away with the district by 13.1 points in 2016.  If turnout is high, history could repeat.  Republicans are also on the march in the OH 1st, VA 5th, AZ 6th, PA 10th, NJ 2nd, TX 21st, and MO 2ndSee, https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings.

Where does all this lead?  Hard to say. Tallying seats that hold Republican, flip Democrat, hold Democrat, or flip Republican – is like mindreading or throwing dice, not real science.  But these races and national trends suggest change is possible.  People are not happy with Speaker Pelosi, virulent socialism, or Democrat-fanned riots and violence.

Put differently, predicting who will control the House is like predicting an Olympic victory from past wins.  By that account, the Soviets should have won in 1980 – as they had more Olympic hockey medals, individual honors, and Soviet Socialist credentials than the ragtag gaggle of American patriots, unstoppable believers in the possible … America’s Olympic hockey team.

A foregone conclusion can be undone by belief in the miracle, and hard work.  America’s political destiny is not about who controls things right now – but who will fight for our values and the future.  By that measure, anything is possible.  Could the House flip?  Long shot, but …

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John Hancock
10 months ago

The optimist would say that enough of the House Democrats see and are tired of the antics and Socialism preached by the DNC and want to revamp it. With the additional Republicans it might be possible to stage a House Coup defrocking Nancy. If that would happen the inevitable falling of an ill health Biden would put the new House leader in a very good position to change lots of things moving more towards the center.

Matthew Schilling
10 months ago

This article is a month old. NOTHING has changed in the last four weeks to invalidate it. In fact, the opposite is true – The House looks more likely to change hands today than it did a month ago. It would still be a YUGE story, if it happens – maybe even bigger than Donald Trump’s reelection in the face of the concerted effort against him. Oh Lord God, please bless America this election cycle!

Larry Henty
11 months ago

Who wins Presidency is not nearly important as who wins the US Senate. A solid Republican majority in the Senate is vital on these issues:

  1. The success of Trump’s SCOTUS nomination of Amy Comey Barrett, which has long-term benefits for Constitutional freedoms.
  2. Blocking attempts by Democrats to pack the Supreme Court with liberal activist Justices.
  3. Death to any successful impeachment of Trump by Pelosi’s House.
  4. Blocking Kamala Harris’ socialist agenda (parroted by Chuck Schumer in the Senate) if Democrats win the White House. Keep in mind what the spectre of what Schumer as the Democrat Senate majority leader could do to destroy the nation’s Constitutional checks and balances.

Independent voters should pay attention to Kamala Harris’ plans. Ignore Joe Biden’s seemingly centrist ideas. A Biden administration will likely be hijacked by Kamala Harris and socialist elements in the Democrat party, either officially or unofficially. This is not conspiratory theory — she has already referred to her “Harris administration” and “my administration”. Don’t believe me; believe her.

Larry W
11 months ago

There could be a large block of Dem and Independent voters who will vote for Trump in the voting booth where it’s secret, but never admit it?

Bob L.
11 months ago

In a completely honest election the Republicans could easily retake the House of Representatives. These days though, things are not honest by a long shot with corruption reaching higher levels than ever before by not only individuals committing voter fraud, but more election officials also breaking the law. It happened in Florida in 2018 with Donna Brazell and is happening now in Harris County Texas and possibly in Colorado, both instances involving high level officials. No doubt there are others across America that are yet to be exposed.

Jim
11 months ago

One thing we should remember is that even when the Republicans had both house and senate they did nothing but oppose our great President and his attempts to correct the evil that was obama / biden ask yourself are these same people go do anything differently this time around if elected or are they just looking for votes to save their worthless asses ? Remember the Republicans had control for the first two years of the Trump Presidency and did nothing but cower to democraps those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it look closely at how you cast your vote but by all means vote TRUMP !!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

Because of the traitor Paul Ryan and the RINO’s, President only had a partial/sometimes majority!  We AMERICANS need to give OUR President a a TRUE Majority in 2020!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

The DemocRats (Communists) have insulted every American Citizen by giving their nomination to a dementia patient and a left wing failure and still expect you to vote for them!  If the Communists win this election with this ticket, they will ensure that there will never again be a true election in their United Soviet States of America!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution Version 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for America!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

What is happening today is exactly why OUR Founders wrote and passed the 2nd Amendment!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution Version 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

The DemocRats, The Media, Teachers Unions, etc. try to make us believe they are invincible!  They ARE NOT!  Push back against the bullies!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

Get our Children our of Public Schools and turn-off Mainstream Media!  Become a Free American!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

The First Presidential Debate consisted of President Trump debating against Chris Wallace and some odd old mumbling guy trying to make a little noise!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

First Remove every DemocRat (RED), then we can eliminate all RINO’s and “old line” Republicans.  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
11 months ago

If we all get out and VOTE, YES we, the true AMERICAN Citizens CAN win back the House and hold the Senate!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

JohnH
11 months ago

Watched the opinion of the Debate Tuesday on both FOX & CNN news. What a difference & makes me wonder if we are all living in the same country.
The best ever debate would have been Ronald Reagan & Donald Trump with Megyn Kelly as moderator. Pick your winner , but I know who I would pick,.

Jeanette Fenton
11 months ago

It all depends on getting out the vote. VOTE! it is vital and DOES make a difference!

Allan Brem
11 months ago

Show them the truth and they will accept it.

Phil Hammersley
11 months ago

DIMMs have nothing to offer but hate and lies. Anyone that loves freedom MUST vote Republican,even if it’s for a RINO. Pelosi is a crooked hater and kowtows to anti-Semites like Omar and AOC.

Al Lane
11 months ago

Today it is very critical that all Americans see the real danger or becoming a socialist country. We must demand that accurate American History be taught in high school and college. If the teachers refuse fire them.

JohnH
11 months ago

After watching the 1st debate, I think that the Republicans might lose seats in both House & Senate this election. Trump was so erratic, that I believe that people might see the need to put some checks & balance on presidential power (such as Executive Orders).Trump did not come out in debate in convincing me that he is for all Americans (whether Blue or Red). We need to unite Americans again.

Kim
11 months ago
Reply to  JohnH

President Trump is the ONLY candidate with each citizen’s interests in mind. When Joe Biden says without flinching that he’s going to raise corporate taxes, that some of the other taxes will come under scrutiny, he’s essentially saying that millions of us will lose our jobs. Back to the old Obama/Biden policy, which indicates they have no clue how the economy works.

The best unemployment numbers for blacks, black youth, Asians, Latinos, high-school educated, and almost the best ever for women didn’t just materialize out of thin air. During his administration, we finally saw significant upticks in household income levels. Trump’s policies made that happen. Those are two instances where his policies affected tens of millions of us. Doesn’t that sound like Trump “is for all Americans”??

I don’t really care too much about his debate performance. No it wasn’t the best. But I do know that Trump does care for us; that’s made very clear just by watching or attending one of his rallies. I hope you’ll vote for him, JohnH.

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