As Americans struggle to understand the risks of COVID-19 relative to other infectious diseases, a common benchmark is influenza, commonly known as the flu. So what is the relative risk of dying from COVID-19 vs. the flu? The answer: it depends on your age, and also your assumptions about how deadly COVID-19 will turn out to be.
However, based on mid-range assumptions, it appears that those under 25 have a significantly lower risk of dying from COVID-19 vs. the flu, while those over 35 are at significantly greater risk. Those over 75, in particular, are at the greatest risk of dying from COVID-19.
COVID-19 disproportionately affects the elderly
The risk of dying from COVID-19 is impossible to answer definitively at this time, because we do not yet know how widely the novel coronavirus will spread, and exactly how lethal infection from SARS-CoV-2 is. Many patients recover from the infection without showing any symptoms.
What we do know is that death from COVID-19 disproportionately affects the elderly.
Based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of May 13, those older than 85 are 314 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those aged 25–34; those under 15, by contrast, are 43 times less likely to die of the disease than those aged 25–34.
Comparing risk of death from COVID-19 vs. influenza by age
Assessing the relative risk of death from COVID-19 and influenza involves a fair amount of educated guesswork, because we do not know how lethal COVID-19 will ultimately be.
As of May 18, one widely-cited but often-criticized epidemiological model, that of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, estimates that the U.S. will experience 147,040 deaths from COVID-19 by August 4, with a 95% confidence interval of 113,182 to 226,971.
For the purposes of this exercise, we assumed that the U.S. COVID-19 death toll ultimately reaches 150,000.
The second challenge we have is that the lethality of influenza varies from year to year, depending on the exact strain of influenza and many other variables, such as the weather. In addition, some people die of pneumonia that is presumed to be caused by influenza, while in other cases, pneumonia is not associated with influenza.
For this analysis, we averaged the death tolls from influenza and pneumonia from 2007 to 2017 from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. On average, in those 11 years, 172 people per million U.S. residents died of influenza or pneumonia, or roughly 60,000 per year.
Based on that analysis, what is striking is that those under the age of 25 are at significantly lower risk of death from COVID-19 than of the flu. Under our assumptions, for example, school-aged children between 5 and 14 have a 1 in 200,000 chance of dying of influenza, but a 1 in 2.5 million chance of dying of COVID-19.
For toddlers, the relative risk is even more pronounced. We estimate that Americans between ages 1–4 are 27 times more likely to die of influenza than of COVID-19.
Reprinted with Permission from - Free Opp by - Avik Roy