Coronavirus / Economic Developments / Finance / Politics

Great Again: Trump economy grows record 33.1 percent in third quarter amid rapid recovery

economyThe U.S. economy blew the barn doors off all other past recoveries with a record, inflation-adjusted 33.1 percent gain in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — more than any other quarter in economic history — in the last major economic report before the election in November.

That is great news for the American people, and it certainly bodes well for President Donald Trump in his bid for reelection against former Vice President Joe Biden as the race for 2020 comes down to the wire. It comes as more than 14 million jobs have been recovered since labor markets bottomed in April amid the Covid state-led lockdowns, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Trump has framed the race as a choice between reopening under him or going back into shutdowns under Biden. In the final debate, Trump declared, “We can’t close up our nation, or you’re not going to have a nation.”

The President is right. 25 million jobs were lost at the height of the state-led economic lockdowns, and although we are halfway through a V-shaped recovery, that could all change in a hurry if the economy shuts down again with Biden in office.

A big part of the remainder of the recovery will be reopening the schools, as closing them disproportionately knocked women out of the labor force, making up 53 percent of the job losses despite only making up 47.2 percent of the workforce. The female labor participation rate fell from 57.8 percent in February to 54.7 percent in April, a low not seen since 1986.

In other words, there are long-term consequences for leaving the economy closed for too long.

At the debate, Trump said, “I want to open the schools. We have to open our country. We’re not going to have a country. You can’t do this. We can’t keep this country closed, this is a massive country with a massive economy. People are losing their jobs. They’re committing suicide. There’s depression, alcohol, drugs at a level that nobody’s ever seen before. There’s abuse, tremendous abuse. We have to open our country… I’ve said it before, the cure cannot be worse than the problem itself, and that’s what’s happening, and he wants to close down, he’ll close down the country, if one person in our massive bureaucracy says we should close it down.”

In the first debate, Biden declared, “Schools — why aren’t schools open? Because it costs a lot of money to open them safely.” He also repeated his line that “You need to shut it down” and “you can’t fix the economy until you fix the Covid crisis.” This mirrored what Biden told ABC News in August that “we cannot get the country moving until we control the virus” and “in order to keep the country running and moving, and the economy growing and people employed, you have to fix the virus,” and adding that if it was recommended to him, “I would shut it down, I would listen to the scientists.”

Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Fauci told Politico in early August that in following the Trump administration’s strategy for virus mitigation that there is no need for another shutdown.

“That would not require shutting down again,” Fauci said, adding, “There seems to be a misperception that either you shut down completely and damage a lot of things, mental health, the economy, all kinds of things, or let it rip and do whatever you want. There’s a stepwise fashion that you can open up the economy successfully. You don’t have to lock down again, but everybody has got to be on board for doing these five or six fundamental public health measures.”

By the time the second debate rolled around, Biden had changed his tune — maybe he read a poll — and instead said, “I’m going to shut down the virus, not the country.”

But the virus appears to be largely under control. Probable total cases are still way down from April peak 282,000 to 147,000 today, a drop of 47 percent, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). And so are deaths, which peaked on April 14 at 2,321 and are down to about 800 now, a 65 percent decrease. The overall mortality rate is down too, therefore, from 0.82 percent to 0.67 percent, judging from the peaks in the IHME data, thanks to treatments and therapies and protecting the elderly, by 18 percent. Thank goodness.

In the meantime, the top ten states in the country with the highest unemployment rates in August prior to many workers losing their benefits are all run by Democratic governors with the worst lockdowns. This could be coming to a state near you should Biden win and he locks down the economy again:

Nevada 13.2%
Rhode Island 12.8%
Hawaii 12.5%
New York 12.5%
California 11.4%
Massachusetts 11.3%
New Mexico 11.3%
Illinois 11%
New Jersey 10.9%
Pennsylvania 10.3%

Now those numbers coming down in September, but that’s largely because people are losing their benefits and exiting the labor force altogether as the CARES Act expires. In September, 879,000 Americans left the U.S. labor force nationwide. So, we’re not out of the woods yet.

And clearly the impact of the ongoing lockdowns could have a major impact on the race. Trump at the debates made his closing argument to those states: “Take a look at what’s happening in Pennsylvania, where they’ve had it closed. Take a look at what’s happening with your friend in Michigan, where her husband’s the only one allowed to do anything. It’s been like a prison. Now it was just ruled unconstitutional. Take a look at North Carolina. They’re having spikes, and they’ve been closed. And they’re getting killed financially. We can’t let that happen, Joe, you can’t let that happen. We have to open up.”

But with the Covid pandemic less intense at the moment — and perhaps the vaccines we need right around the corner — America appears to be in a position to be renewed, and the economy is roaring with unprecedented 33.1 percent growth in the third quarter and 14 million jobs recovered in just five months.

The American people can clearly see the benefits of safely reopening. And in just a few short days, we’ll find out if they want to keep on reopening with Trump, or shut it back down with Biden. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.

Reprinted with Permission from - Daily Torch by - Robert Romano

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jdl51
10 months ago

12.5 million unemployed, 730,000 NEW unemployment claims this week alone, after months of over 800,000 new claims every week, $4 trillion deficit this year alone, -3,5 annual GDP this year, worst since the Hoover administration. Q3 GDP below expectations and down overall for the year with near 100,000 new infections yesterday and 1,000 dead from Covid.

GT Patr
10 months ago

How much longer is this country paying for non-working teachers ?? Also, Biden will require that states which are operating on a balanced
budget bail out wrecked economies such as Calif and NY who are paying state retirees 3 times more pension than private sector retirees
and 3 times more than state pensions in well run states.
And Calif and NY want to raise retirement pay at least 10 % every year as they have done for the past 20 years. That’s how they went broke.
There are hundreds of full time lobbyists in DC being paid to get congress to bail out the state deficits of CA and NY. Don’t let them steal
you blind. CA and NY are wrecked states. Don’t spend the rest of your life solving their stupidity. Lets offer Mexico $10 million to take CA and
offer Canada $10 million to take NY. Know what ? Mexico and Canada are too smart to take this deal.

GT Patr
10 months ago

Thank you AMAC. Even Fox is ignoring this story. Much of the US ( not America) cannot handle success.

Mimi
10 months ago

As President Trump works hard to bring the economy roaring back, I wonder how long it will take Obama and Biden to announce that they started the ball rolling. And let’s give credit where credit is due, they started it rolling all right, straight DOWNHILL!! President Trump came along and started treating the federal government like a business, and in his mind a business need to be profitable or shut down. So he started making it profitable by doing better trade agreements and shutting down the one that were not profitable!! Amazing concept. Go with what makes good economic sense and get rid of what doesn’t!! Actually pretty simple concept. The dems have been trying to bankrupt this nation for years. GO TRUMP 2020.
VOTE. VOTE. VOTE. VOTE.

Kim
10 months ago

Incredible timing!! I was beginning to get a little nervous about the stock market dropping, but now I eagerly await the reports.

At this point, lockdowns are yesterday’s solution to today’s problems. Open up the country!

PaulE
10 months ago
Reply to  Kim

The stock market dropping the last few days has more to do with the institutional investors and hedge funds throwing the equivalent of a coordinated hissy fit. They didn’t get the multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill in time for their options positions to be cash positive. Lots of their options expiring at the end of the month out of the money. They look at more stimulus being injected into the economy, primarily the direct checks to the people, as fresh money a lot of folks will invest through them or in stocks they already have placed option bets on. Thus driving up stock prices and making their option positions more valuable. Not something the average person would think about when it comes to the stimulus, but that is the bottom line of what has been driving the market action the last week to 10 days.

Kim
10 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Thanks, PaulE. I appreciate the explanation, but it still makes me a bit queasy to see how closely tied our investments are to the toys that the hedge fund managers are playing with. When I had more savings, long-term investing was a winner. Now, as I plan to purchase a property, I confess to watching daily or weekly movements. Mea culpa.

PaulE
10 months ago

Lockdowns don’t solve anything. There is NO MEDICAL EVIDENCE to support the theory that a widely dispersed virus can be eliminated through lockdowns. All lockdowns do is delay the inevitable spread of the virus and increase suffering and hardship, as the economy collapses.

Ask the people of Melbourne, Australia, who just came off 101 days of a total lockdown of everything how they’re doing. Look at the suicide rate, the people who died from untreated illnesses because EVERYTHING was shut down. Ask the small and medium size business owners, who are now bankrupt and have lost everything, how they feel. Ask ALL the former employees of all those businesses how they feel, now that they have NO JOBS and no money to pay for anything. Soon many will become homeless, as their lives have been utterly destroyed through politicians pushing lockdowns as the magic fix.

The politicians pushing lockdowns as the magic cure to the virus don’t experience any of these pains, because they are living off the taxpayers. What few that are left anyway. Their salaries and perks will be the absolute last things ever cut, no matter how much damage they inflict on the public.

With a handful of days left to the election, the choice should be obvious. Yet we can’t completely discount the portion of the public that has been successfully dumbed-down or is just plain stupid enough to think a over the hill, 47 year career politician, with mid stage dementia, and his opportunist running mate, who couldn’t even get one single vote in the Democrat primaries (that should tell you something), are a viable substitute for the current president that has done more positive things for the country in four years, than most have accomplished in eight years. Soon we’ll know whether there are still more rational, intelligent people than there are useful idiots in this country.

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