Politics

Labor Day Update: Crunch Time for 3 Campaigns

AMAC Exclusive – by Pat Conroy

labor day update campaign crunch timeWhile most Americans enjoy some well-deserved time off on Labor Day, for political candidates the holiday is the first day of the crucial home stretch of the fall campaign season. In the coming weeks, three states will hold gubernatorial elections: Virginia, New Jersey, and the recall election in California. All will be widely watched for signs that may portend a Democrat collapse in the midterm elections next year.

While we’ll have to wait until November for results in Virginia and New Jersey, the California recall vote will offer results on September 14. Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom is fighting for his political life thanks to California’s unconventional recall process. In one of the bluest states in the country, Republicans find themselves with a real chance to take over the Governor’s mansion 8 days from now.

All 22 million registered voters in California have received a ballot in the mail with two questions. First, the central question, “Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?” Second, voters are to select a candidate to succeed Gavin Newsom as Governor if he is recalled. On the recall question, “no, do not remove” is leading slightly by 5% in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. Out of the candidates vying to replace Newsom, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, is running far ahead of the field by more than 15% on the RCP average.

Newsom’s campaign team is sounding the alarm about the recall threat. Democrats are attempting to frame the completely constitutional recall effort as a “Republican power-grab.” The Newsom campaign has massively outspent Republican challengers and in their latest television ad, they recruited Senator Bernie Sanders to implore voters to save Newsom. “The September 14 recall of Governor Newsom is a bald-faced Republican power grab,” Sanders said. “Don’t let it happen.” If the socialist from Vermont’s plea proves unsuccessful, Republicans will have won their first California governor’s race since 2006, when former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected after first being elected in a similar 2003 recall.

If history is any guide, Republicans also have a fighting chance in the two traditional elections this fall in Virginia and New Jersey. During the first off-year election in each of the last three presidencies, the party controlling the White House has lost both the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections. In 2001, Democrat Mark Warner defeated Republican Mark Earley in Virginia and Democrat nominee Jim McGreevey defeated Republican Bret Schundler in New Jersey. In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Craig Deeds in Virginia and Republican Chris Christie defeated Democrat incumbent John Corzine in New Jersey. And most recently in 2017, Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy defeated Republican Kim Guadagno in New Jersey.

In each of those elections, the party that did not control the White House held a significant turnout advantage that helped propel their candidates to victory. Without former President Donald Trump on the ballot to stoke Democrat turnout, combined with President Biden’s sinking poll numbers, Republicans have at least some reason for cautious optimism in both states.

In the Garden State, Republicans likely face their toughest challenge of the three elections. Democrat Governor Phil Murphy is comfortably leading the Republican challenger, former State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, with less than two months to go until election day. In every head-to-head poll conducted up until this point, Murphy has led Ciattarelli by more than 15 points. To make Ciattarelli’s challenge even more difficult, New Jersey has more than one million registered Democrats than Republicans.

However, there is one potential saving grace for the Ciattarelli campaign – recent history. Despite the state’s deep blue political make up, Republicans have managed to control the Governor’s office for 24 of the last 40 years. In fact, the last time New Jersey re-elected a Democrat governor was in 1977, when Brendan Byrne defeated Republican challenger Raymond Bateman. Whether that trend continues or is merely a fluke is yet to be determined. What impact the recent precipitous collapse in Joe Biden’s approval ratings will have on the race also remains to be seen.

Republicans’ best chance this fall undoubtedly lies in the Old Dominion, where former Democrat Governor Terry McAuliffe and Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin are facing off. Many political pundits have suggested that, after more than a decade of mostly Democrats victories, Virginia is now solidly a blue state. But according to polling released last week by Trafalgar Group, 46.6% of likely Virginia voters support McAuliffe while 46.3% support Youngkin – a statistical tie. If this holds true, the roughly 5% of Virginians who said they are still undecided in the Trafalgar poll will determine Virginia’s next Governor.

It also appears that McAuliffe’s recent campaigning with President Biden may not have been the greatest strategy after all. Biden’s recent poll numbers slipping to record lows have mirrored the tightening race for Governor in Virginia. Momentum is clearly on Glenn Youngkin’s side, and his campaign is attempting to capitalize on it. In an effort to win those crucial undecided voters, Youngkin recently released a full policy platform as his “Day One Game Plan.”

“We have a lot we need to get done here in Virginia, and we need to start strong. It is time for bold leadership, and the Day One Game Plan takes on the challenges facing Virginians and puts us on a path toward having the best jobs, the best schools, and the safest communities in America,” said Glenn Youngkin in his rollout announcement. “Terry McAuliffe and his liberal Richmond allies are failing Virginia, and it’s going to take a new kind of leader—not a failed politician looking for a second chance—to create a Commonwealth where businesses can prosper, students can thrive, and communities are safe.”

The three issue areas where Youngkin expects to make gains among independent voters are the economy, education, and public safety – all of which are in decline under the current Northam administration. Youngkin says his economic plan of significant tax reform, commonsense deregulation, and small business incentives would create 400,000 new jobs in Virginia. He drives home the need for substantial change by highlighting on his campaign website that “Virginia currently ranks 44th in job recovery during the pandemic and was recently ranked as the 49th best state to start a business.”

Meanwhile, on education, Youngkin recognizes that Virginians are fed up with the prevalence of Critical Race Theory and other anti-American ideologies in public school classrooms. His website details “ridding political agendas from the classroom by banning Critical Race Theory.”

Recent actions taken by the McAuliffe campaign suggest they also know CRT is a losing issue and unpopular with Virginians. According to new reporting from the Washington Free Beacon, Terry McAuliffe “removed his pledge to “eliminate racial disparities” from the top of his campaign’s K-12 education page…the Democrat also nixed the term “equitable” from the top of four issue pages on his campaign site.”

Finally, Youngkin seeks to address the 20-year high murder rate currently ravaging Virginia communities. He’s proposing “fully funding law enforcement and protecting qualified immunity for our law enforcement heroes.” Once again, the Youngkin campaign recognizes a massive vulnerability for the Democrats and McAuliffe campaign, which dates back to their party’s ill-advised embrace of the “Defund the Police” movement in the lead up to the 2020 presidential election. For proof, look no further than the McAuliffe campaign releasing an ad touting the former Governor’s law enforcement endorsements, shortly after Youngkin savaged McAuliffe for the Virginia crime rate.

Between the elections unfolding in California, New Jersey, and Virginia, it’s clear that political pendulum has swung back toward Republicans and Democrats are back on their heels. The only question remains, can Republicans close the deal this fall?

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Michael
1 month ago

I read all the comments and replies to comments. Most agree that Democrats are getting fed carefully strategized propaganda that keeps even brilliant individuals fooled AND Republicans need to wake up and do something! Does anyone really know an effective strategy for “Average John/Jane” to do to make a difference? Does anyone have a list of leaders and groups that are, in fact, making a positive difference?

Andrew P
1 month ago

I am hopeful that we can win VA and CA, but I am afraid that the abortion issue may allow the Democrats to pull victory out of the jaws of defeat.

Skep41
1 month ago

Here in California our crooked-as-a-pigs-tail electoral system will pretty much ensure Newsome’s victory, no matter what the actual voters say. The Democrats spent $24 billion on a Bullet Train that never got built but you can be sure there’s a Bullet Train full of bogus ballots ready to be ‘harvested’ for Newsome, should he fall short in the actual vote. The big takeaway here is who is abandoning the Democrats to vote for Elder. While the wealthy white coastal elite retains it’s simple faith in the Progressive doxology the poverty-stricken and mainly minority inhabitants away from the coast are deserting The Party That Cares in droves. A true revolution. The result should be interesting.

Larkenson
1 month ago

Anti-White liberals and respectable conservatives that support massive third-world immigration and FORCED assimilation for EVERY White country and ONLY White countries say that they are anti-racist, but their policies will lead to a world with no White people i.e White Genocide.
Anti-racist is a code word for anti-White.

R.S. Helms
1 month ago

Let’s hope … let’s pray that the Democrats & RINO (all Luciferians) lose for the next several elections so the Conservatives can rid the nation of the cumbersome Luciferian Bureaucracy and slim down the waist-line of the Federal government. And undo the social healthcare, put insurance back where it should be, redo the CDC and the Health system … and while taking care of these, force the Federal Government to pay back all the Social Security Money they have stolen.

Last edited 1 month ago by R.S. Helms
Karen
1 month ago

I’m in New Jersey and although I like Phil as a person, I certainly don’t approve of his Democratic policies. Gonna go for Jack anyway even tho’ NJ is a Dem/Socialistic state.
Good luck Larry Elder and Jack C.

Eddie Van Halen
1 month ago

Gavin Nuisance political “life ?” He should consider CIA approved cyanide capsules.
As ALL ( D ) communists should do as well. Would’nt that be great ?

PaulE
1 month ago

I see once again my comments have been censored by AMAC. What’s wrong AMAC? Are you afraid of the additional context I supplied regarding the New Jersey race, because it doesn’t fit neatly into your suggested narrative? The readers deserve the full context of each race being discussed in the article.

Last edited 1 month ago by PaulE
Joe
1 month ago

If California is using computers for the voter count, Newsom wins big.

Myrna
1 month ago

If cheating can win Newsom continuance, California is stuck.

Guest
1 month ago

Stop Bernie Sanders, who cares what he thinks. Become a constitutional defender.

Russ Hart
1 month ago

Vote ????

Hal
1 month ago

Even as a non-Californian but solid American believer in Constitutional Democracy, I hope California can shake off the Newsom era advance towards Communism.

Eddie Van Halen
1 month ago
Reply to  Hal

Hal, this is a Constitutional REPUBLIC. The only thing demo-cratic is the form of voting.

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago

First off, they can take all these poll numbers & shove them where the sun don’t shine…!
CA needs to be watched closely, they will LIE, CHEAT & STEAL to keep Newsom in office…Check out those ” Mail-In Ballots ” in CA folks. There is a rectangular ” hole ” on the backside of the envelope that allows anyone to look inside & clearly see the ” RECALL, YES/NO ” box…
It shouldn’t take a genius to figure out why a hole is put into mail in ballot & strategically placed I might add. The Democrats are the masters of cheating because quite frankly, it is the only way they can get elected & stay elected…Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders may be a blessing in disguise for the conservative voters of CA btw…He is a arrogant loud mouth blowhard as his days are over…
Bill on the Hill… :~)

Ertis Crumpler
1 month ago

Who is Newsom’s aunty? Nancy Pelosi of course.

do you really think she will let him be recalled?

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago
Reply to  Ertis Crumpler

Ertis Crumpler… Is that really your name? Well lets see now, Y’all must be referring to Aunty Nancy’s earlier prediction that Trump will NEVER serve a second term…What did Nancy Pelosi seemingly know that the rest of us didn’t?
Ertis, you may very well have a valid point here…
Bill on the Hill… :~)

PaulE
1 month ago

I tend to agree Bill. In general polling has become a meaningless exercise, as the companies being hired to conduct the polls are also heavily weighting both the questions and who is actually polled to favor Democrat candidates.

After looking at how the California recall election is being handled by the Democrat party, there are numerous opportunities for them to achieve their goal of keeping Newsom in place by manipulating the ballots.

Pete from St Pete
1 month ago

When I hear that 43 per cent of Democrats still approve of Joe Biden’s performance as President, I can only shake my head and wonder what kind of cement they have in their heads.

Hal
1 month ago

It’s pretty clear that 43 per cent Americans are either brain dead, self-serving, seek self and partisan advantage no-matter-the-cost, are aligned with National foreign enemy networks, or simply wanting to go to a Communist government system. IMO Joe Hidin’ Biden has simpatica with all the aforementioned 43%. My hearfelt plea has gone from “God Bless America!” to “God Help America Escape From Communist DemocRat Rule!”

Philip Hammersley
1 month ago
Reply to  Hal

Can we BELIEVE the polls? I doubt it! they got it all wrong with Trump! They always poll more DIMMs than GOP and that skews the results!

Eddie Van Halen
1 month ago

Obviously, these “zombies” do not look at the gas pump prices. That is the first thing anyway.

Max
1 month ago

Since the polls are being conducted in heavy “BLUE” areas, it is no wonder there is a high percentage of idiots saying they approve of the administrations performance. Some people are just ignorant about how the polls are conducted.

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago

A very porous type of cement Pete, lol!
Bill on the Hill… :~)

Bonnie
1 month ago

I think the poll numbers are wrong. I don’t think it’s as close as they say. In order to even get as far on the recall as they have, there had to be more than just Republicans leading the way. I think people, no matter what side of the aisle they stand, understand that Newsom’s done a horrible job managing the state and needs to go. There were plenty of Democrats and Independents involved in the recall, not just Republicans.

Nancy
1 month ago
Reply to  Bonnie

????????

Nancy
1 month ago
Reply to  Nancy

Pray

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago
Reply to  Bonnie

Bonnie, I agree 100%, however, one only need to look at the 2020 presidential election to see just how depraved the Democrats truly are… Look what they fraudulently put into office in the WH has done to our nation in ( 7 ) very long months of constant dysfunction from day one…
Bill on the Hill… :~)

PaulE
1 month ago

Exactly right.

Hal
1 month ago
Reply to  Bonnie

Your point may be feasible once it is evident understood that the DemocRats, in addition to having coerced and/or intimidated and/or deceived the great majority of the New Media to the point that the New Media is pretty much an outlet for DemocRat propaganda … not unbiased news presentation.

Gunny Joe
1 month ago

When will the American people wake up? It is not the party we are voting for, it is the state you live in, and most important America! All and I can’t can’t state this strong enough, the election process has to be watched. Should have been corrected before this election. How many noncitizen will vote? How many dead people will vote? How many harvest votes will be influenced? How many people will send in the mail in ballot then vote in person? Till the above and other cheating is corrected by the American people, the only outcome will be the party that cheated the best.

PaulE
1 month ago
Reply to  Gunny Joe

Sadly it seems a large percentage of the American people want to avoid unpleasant truths like those you’ve articulated here. I know it bothers me too, but for many Americans it seems they prefer to ignore whatever parts of reality upset them. So they pretend that those issues don’t actually exist and that elections are all on the up and up, despite substantial evidence otherwise. There is a term for that and its called delusional. Until Americans are fully prepared to face the hard truths out there and are willing to do something about it, they will NOT “wake up” as you implore.

David Spade
1 month ago

Bernie is running for top spot for the idiot of the month in the Marxist Democrat party. He appears to be running neck and neck with McAuliffe in the leftist state of Virginia. It is so sad that these hapless individuals can’t even figure out what is best for America over there demented, Marxist personal agendas.

Eddie Van Halen
1 month ago
Reply to  David Spade

Dave – it’s flat out ( D ) communist.

Art
1 month ago

So the pendulum has “swung”? Far enough to even get a sniff of victory? Hope that they are real “Rs” not RINOS. Youngkin “plans to address a 20 year murder rate UPTICK”. HOW? NOW? Gruesome Newsom has the full throated support of Liz Warren and even Princess Spread Eagle(Kamala Harris Imhoff for those of you in Rio Linda,CA). The action to save the ship just gets more entertaining every day. Nazi Pelosi’s/Delansandro’s nephew is in danger. He will be OK. How many ballots have been sent out???? 2 million??? YOU GO LARRY ELDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Murphy you also protected. Love your taxes and other foul programs.

Rik
1 month ago

Get real People, the Progressively Communist wannabe Democrats CAN’T have Comrade Newsom LOSE! Hundreds of thousands of phony mail-in ballots will GUARANTEE that HE DOESN’T! Wanna bet?

PaulE
1 month ago
Reply to  Rik

Whatever number of last minutes ballots is needed to achieve a squeaker of a victory for Newsom, that is what will materialize. Way too much money and control of national issues on the line for the left to allow even a complete incompetent like Newsom to fail.

Eddie Van Halen
1 month ago
Reply to  PaulE

Would’nt be a bit surprised.

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