Politics

Trump-Endorsed Immigration Bill Would Save Taxpayers Trillions

Trump Travel ban speech immigrationEarlier this month, President Donald Trump endorsed the RAISE (Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment) Act introduced by Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and David Perdue, R-Ga., a bill to reform the merit-based immigration system and limit low-skill immigration.

Low-skill immigration is very costly to U.S. taxpayers. For example, a legal immigrant without a high school degree typically receives $4 in government benefits for every $1 he pays in taxes.

By limiting future low-skill immigration, the RAISE Act has the potential to save U.S. taxpayers trillions of dollars in future years.

There are 12.8 million low-skill legal immigrants with a high school degree or less currently residing in the U.S. The households headed by these low-skill legal immigrants impose a net fiscal cost (total government benefits received minus total taxes paid) of $150 billion each year.

The $150 billion tax burden is equivalent to a $1.04 tax on every gallon of gas purchased by U.S. motorists every year for the foreseeable future.

The RAISE Act seeks to curtail future fiscal costs linked to low-skill immigration by eliminating chain migration, the visa lottery, and the current low-skill worker allotment. It also caps the future flow of refugees and asylees.

Nearly 400,000 legal immigrants enter the U.S. through these channels each year. The majority of these appear to be low-skill.

The bill’s reforms to chain migration are particularly important.

Chain migration starts with a foreign citizen who is given a green card. This individual is allowed to bring in his or her nuclear family consisting of a spouse and minor children.

Once the original immigrant and his or her spouse become U.S. citizens, they can petition for their parents, adult sons and daughters, and adult siblings and brothers- and sisters-in-law to also enter.

This second group can bring their minor children. Once they become citizens, the brothers- and sisters-in-law and parents can petition for their siblings, in-laws, and parents to legally enter the U.S.

The RAISE bill limits future chain migration. Each future migrant can bring only nuclear family members.

Parents can be brought to the country on a guest visa but will not be given access to government benefits or citizenship status. The sponsors must demonstrate that they have purchased insurance to cover the future medical costs of the parent.

The U.S. tax and benefit system is redistributive—it provides extensive benefits to less skill/low-wage individuals while asking them to pay comparatively less in taxes. On average, low-skill individuals, whether non-immigrants, legal immigrants, or illegal immigrants, impose substantial costs on U.S. taxpayers.

In order to determine the fiscal cost of low-skill immigrants, it is important to count the cost of all government benefits and services received minus the value taxes paid.

This type of holistic analysis was presented by the National Academy of Sciences in its major report, “The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration,” released in September of last year.

The report estimated the costs of government benefits and services received by immigrants and non-immigrants from federal state and local government.

The report’s calculation of government benefits is comprehensive—it includes routine government services such as police and fire protection, highways and sewers; public education costs; benefits from over 80 means-tested welfare programs such as Medicaid, food stamps, the earned income tax credit, and housing vouchers; and other government direct benefits, including Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance.

The report also provides a comprehensive analysis of taxes paid at the federal, state, and local levels, including personal income taxes, FICA taxes, sales taxes, excise taxes, property, and business taxes.

Having estimated the government benefits received and the total taxes paid, the report then analyzes the fiscal balance (total government benefits received minus total taxes paid) for immigrants and non-immigrants with different levels of education.

The report shows that less educated individuals, whether immigrants or non-immigrants, receive far more in government benefits than they pay in taxes.

In particular, the report provides 75-year projections for the fiscal balance of immigrants and their immediate descendants based on the immigrant’s education level. It measures future cost in “net present value.”

The concept of “net present value” is complex. It places a much lower value on future expenditures than on current expenditures.

One way to grasp net present value is that it represents the total amount of money that the government would have to raise today and put in a bank account earning interest at 3 percent above the inflation rate in order to cover future costs.

Based on the National Academy of Sciences’ estimates, the average low-skill immigrant (with a high school degree or less) who enters the country imposes a net present value on taxpayers of negative $142,000.

This means the government would need to immediately raise a lump sum of $142,000 and put it in a high-yield bank account to cover the future net fiscal cost (total benefits minus total taxes) of that immigrant.

Converting a net present value figure into future outlays requires information on the exact distribution of costs over time. That data is not provided by the National Academy of Sciences.

However, a rough estimate of the future net outlays to be paid by taxpayers (in constant 2012 dollars) for low-skill immigrants appears to be around $397,000 per immigrant over 75 years.

The National Academy of Sciences’ cost figures represent a mixture of costs for legal and illegal immigrants. The RAISE Act is focused directly on low-skill legal immigrants.

Since low-skill legal immigrants receive more benefits, their fiscal impact is greater than similar illegal immigrants. The net present value for a legal immigrant with a high school degree or less is around negative $170,000, and the undiscounted long-term fiscal cost (benefits minus taxes) would be around $476,000 in constant 2012 dollars.

Over the last decade and a half, an average of 470,000 low-skill adult immigrants (both legal and illegal) have arrived in the U.S. each year. The net present value of this inflow is around negative $67 billion per year.

In other words, to cover the future cost of one year’s inflow of low-skill immigrants, the government would need to immediately raise taxes by a lump sum of $67 billion, put the money in the bank earning interest at the inflation rate plus 3 percent, and use the interest and principal to cover long-term costs. (Sixty-seven billion dollars equals around $800 for each U.S. household currently paying federal income tax.)

Of course, in the next year another 470,000 would arrive, requiring another lump sum payment of $800 per taxpaying household. The year after, another 470,000 will arrive, requiring another $800 per taxpaying household, and so on.

Fiscal costs can also be analyzed per decade. Under existing government laws and policies, an estimated 4.7 million low-skill immigrants (both legal and illegal) are likely to enter the U.S. over the next decade.

The fiscal net present values of these immigrants to the taxpayers will be around negative $670 billion. In other words, government would need to immediately raise taxes by $670 billion to cover the future costs.

Of course, the government will not actually raise taxes in this manner—instead, the future costs will be hidden and passed on to future taxpayers.

The future net outlays (benefits given less taxes paid) for the inflow of 4.7 million low-skill immigrants will be around $1.9 trillion (in constant 2012 dollars).

Over half these costs are linked to future low-skill legal immigration. By limiting future legal low-skill immigration, the RAISE Act could save at least $1 trillion.

Additional large savings could be achieved by limiting future illegal immigration. These saving figures apply to only a single decade of low-skill immigration. Similar savings would occur by limiting low-skill immigration in subsequent decades.

Opponents of such reforms argue that such immigration increases the gross domestic product.

It is true that immigration increases the GDP, but as Harvard immigration economist George Borjas explains, 98 percent of the increase “goes to the immigrants themselves in the form of wages and benefits.”

Metaphorically speaking, low-skill immigrants increase the economic pie, but they eat nearly all the increase themselves.

Low-skill immigration reduces the wages of similar U.S.-born workers. An immigration-induced increase in the low-skill labor force of 10 percent can reduce the wages of low-skill non-immigrant labor by 3 to 10 percent.

Some studies show wage losses as high as 17 percent. Black male wages and employment are especially hard hit. By reducing wages of less skilled non-immigrants, low-skill immigration increases economic inequality in the U.S., redistributing income from the least advantaged Americans to the more affluent.

Finally, low-skill immigration shifts the political balance in the nation.

According to Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, the political alignment of immigrants is far to the left that of non-immigrants. Immigrants in general are twice as likely to identify with and register as Democrats than as Republicans.

This pattern is somewhat more pronounced among immigrants without a high school degree who are almost three times as likely to register as Democrats than as Republicans.

Low-skill immigration imposes large fiscal costs on U.S. taxpayers. It drives down the wages and employment of the disadvantaged American workers (especially black males), and it arbitrarily shifts the political balance in the U.S.

The RAISE Act would appropriately address these problems.

From - The Daily Signal - by Robert Rector and Jamie Bryan Hall

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Teri
4 years ago

Amen to that!

Van E Hamlin
4 years ago

This is a ztep in the right direction. The only immigrants allowed to legally work here are guest workers; not guezt workers and family. Guest workers should be relieved if their job if the State department of employment funds a qualified US citizen to occupy that job. No chain entry to USA, please.

Bob Menestrina
4 years ago

Here are my thoughts on immigration:

Potential Immigration improvements.
Futurists have predicted the US will need immigrants to maintain and progress. Our demographics are such that birth rate does not provide enough for future growth. Immigrants are needed, but who and how?
NOTE: Previous INS is now part of Homeland Secuity, and renamed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).
1. MERIT , EXPERIENCE, & COMPETENCE should be a larger factor in legal immigration. We should favor immigrants with useable skills and education. Foreign students completeing Post-Graduate Degrees in STEM majors should be given broader latitude to obtain green cards and a route to citizenship.
2. Europeans and Christians have been discriminated against in recent decades.
This should be changed. Christians in Moslem countries are being killed, but do not receive immigre status. European quotas are unfairly low and should be changed.
3. Family Connections. Immigranting just because of family connections allowed in 1965, This need to be reviewed. This allows pulling family members without any special vetting. It may be a problem. Why should uncles, 3rd cousins etc. be included. I can see the immediate family, and maybe the parents and grandparents. But why others.?
4. Build the fence, A good start, but not all that effective. Fences are only good if guards watch and are able to respond to breakages. More people will be needed to guard the fence. Extra funding will be needed.
5. Retain and screen illegal immigrants. Put them thru the Health and Vetting procedures we did long ago this the current vetting for INS (Now called U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)). For those that fail, (Have communicable dieases, or radical tendancies) immediately send them back. Give their cleared family members the option to stay or to return with their failed family members. If they stay, Have them report weekly to the closest US Post Office with Location, Contact, and Employement information. If they do not report, export them.
6. Enforce current Laws. Enforce more effectively the National the requirement to prove elegibility before employement. FUND TO INCREASE INFORCEMENT. MORE PEOPLE, MORE TECHNOLOGY IS NEEDED. MORE LEADERSHIP SUPPORT AND ATTENTION IS NEEDED.
Reinstate the Eisenhower policy for temporary agricultural workers and/or expand and simplify current H-2A Temporary Agricultural Workers proceedures. Help any illegal qualify for existing programs. Make it so that if they cannot get a qualified job, they cannot work. Then help them return to their home country.
7. Tourist Visas. Currently many illegal immigrants orginally had Tourist Visas, but did not leave.
Change the rules so that these individuals need to report weekly (or some other convient time period) at US Post Offices. Each tourist visa report could be charged a small fee, ($5-$10). This would include current location, contact information, and similar info.
NOTE: US Postal Services has had a long history of losing money. They currently process both Selective Service registrations and Passport applications. By including foeign citizen visa reporting, with a small processing fee ($5 or $10) per visit, they could gain an additional revenue stream. (Obviously this report info would need be linked to INS. The purpose is to know where these visitors are and when their visa expires).
Failure to report would lead to automatic expulsion.
8. Business Visas – Same Process as Tourist Visas.
9. Green Card Holders – The employers would be responsible to have the foreign employee periodically report, and then to provide this info to the INS. Upon loss of employment, this employer must inform INS, and the foreign holder of the Green Card must either (within a short reasonable time) show proof of employment with another company meeting the same requirements of the original Green Card, or leave the country and apply for another Green Card. If this person is between jobs, he should report weekly via the post office until a new employer is found.
10. Student Visa Holders – The Education Instutition would be responsible to have the foreign employee periodically report, and then to provide this info to the INS. Upon graduation or quiting this education,this Education Instutition must inform INS.

NOTE: Some Institutions currently refuse to provide this information. In those cases, the Education Institution should be refused Federal government funding. This includes research contracts, and other grants. Any such open contracts or grants should be cancelled.

However, this does not include funds to individual US citizen students such as Pell grants and ROTC Scholarships. Do not penaltize US citizen students, just the Institution.

Any Foreign Students at this institution will have there Student Visa Voided unless they apply and are accepted by another Education Instution that will accept reporting.

This is a major incentive because Foreign Students are charged higher tuitions. In State Schools, this may be as much as 2 or 3 times the normal in-state tuition.

11. Change the Amendment 14 to the US Constitution.
The current Constituion states:
The 14th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified on July 9, 1868, and granted citizenship to “all persons born or naturalized in the United States,” which included former slaves recently freed. In addition, it forbids states from denying any person “life, liberty or property, without due process of law” or to “deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.” By directly mentioning the role of the states, the 14th Amendment greatly expanded the protection of civil rights to all Americans and is cited in more litigation than any other amendment.

This was placed to cover ex-slaves after the Civil War. That reason is no longer applicable.

Several other countries have similar laws, but why should we?

The Birther Citizenship currently in place leads to Family citizenship. Why should a pregrnant woman be allowed into the US only to give birth?

I suggest Amendment 14 be changed to read “all persons born (who one or both parents are US citizens ) or naturalied in the United States “

This would remove the Birther loophole. This will require a change in the Constitution; so it will be a long-term issue.

Rick B.
4 years ago

For those who haven’t heard, Trump pardoned Sheriff Joe Arpaio last night. God Bless America.

PaulE
4 years ago
Reply to  Rick B.

I see John McCain didn’t waste any time criticizing Trump’s decision to do so. A RINO right to the bitter end. Why doesn’t he just switch parties like Arlen Spector did and be done with it? After all, a Democrat masquerading as a Republican is what he really is and has been for a long, long time.

Frank
4 years ago

This is just the tip of the iceberg with this situation. Add the fact that robotics and artificial intelligence will eliminate many of today’s low skilled jobs, the last thing this country needs is to add to that unemployable labor pool.

Joel Wischkaemper
4 years ago

This is the issue that Arizona faced with the flood of illegal aliens into the United States.
hyttp://www.immigrationcounters.com
The illegal aliens love it.. the American Taxpayers pay for it.

Joel Wischkaemper
4 years ago

Thank you Mr. Trump.
Many very bigoted groups deeply support the illegal aliens as a means of increasing political power. They do not care who they harm, or what law they break. They want what they want.
Now.. the question is.. is the Congress with the American People, or are they with the illegal aliens.

Hank
4 years ago

Illegal immigration endorses and promotes: 1) exploitation of immigrants by paying sub-par wages 2) tax evasion – (undermining the system that pays for liberal policy) 3) allows non-worker criminals to travel more freely (Gangs and drugs) 4) flips the bird to legal immigrants 5) allows easier access for anti-American interests 6) sweatshops…sorry, have to stop here and get back to work

Rick B.
4 years ago

“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”

That sentiment worked for the U.S. for many centuries. But the current flood of low-skilled, high-need legal and illegal immigrants is unsustainable. We need the “tired… of socialism’s failures,” the “poor… wanting to rise,” and the “yearning… for a free country” to: (1) assimilate, (2) become educated, and (3) help drive our economy forward. Unfetterd, unfiltered immigration is just as out-of-date as the one room schoolhouse.

“immigration without assimilation is invasion.” — Former LA Governer Bobby Jindal

Wayne
4 years ago

I for one am going to write my reps and urge them to vote yes. I’m going to urge my friends to do the same. I would like first to see the actual bill to see what just might be “hidden”!

Gar
4 years ago

If FairTax (a total consumption tax and the complete repeal of all income tax) were implimented, this issue would be a “non-issue” because anyone in this country would pay their share of federal and state tax when they purchase good and services. Low income earners below the poverty level would receive additional support in the form of low earner rebates. It would not matter if someone were legal or not. But then again, this would be a “practical” approach to a problem and in today’s government is simply not allowed. Government would loose their ability to extort from business for donations and vice versa businesses would loose the ability to influence legislation through bribery. And, a party would find it more difficult to allow mass immigration of illegal aliens with benefits just to get votes.

Paul G
4 years ago

RAISE is sensible immigration. It’s not exactly “plain and simple”, because immigration law is already so convoluted. But it is based on sound economic principles, backed by empirical data, and not on the emotional cries of fiscally ignorant well-wishers and bleeding hearts.
Simply put: we, as a country, simply cannot afford to be “generous” beyond our means. Borrowing against future prosperity by kicking the cost can down the road to future taxpayers and workers has increased our debt to where it will likely never be paid off. You simply can’t pay off a debt that you keep adding to.

The very people who do not want low-income, low-educated, usually big familied, immigrants living in their neighborhood, are perfectly fine foisting that burden on everyone else, with emotional calls for “compassion” and “generosity”. Compassion and generosity are fine, laudable, and the hallmark of the United States’ policies toward those less fortunate. However, compassion and generosity begin at home. Before we add to the burden of bringing in additional low income, low educated, low productivity, high cost immigrants let’s work with our existing citizens to improve their education, increase their productivity, and improve their income so they are a net gain to the economy. Then we can extend that hand of help to others looking to immigrate to the US.

If it’s hard to think this way, that the US is simply unable to afford so many immigrants, then think of it on this scale:
– You earn a good income, have a family of your own, a house, and money in the bank for emergency and your future security.
– You decided to extend the hand of generosity and bring another, unrelated, person into your household.
– This person eats your family’s food, lives in your family’s home, drives you family’s car, and is in all ways part of your family
– This person has a job and contributes to the household, but for every $1 they bring in, they cost your family $2
– Next year you decide to do the same thing and bring another person into your household with the same fiscal balance (costing $2 for every $1 earned).
– The same for the next year, and the next…
– No one can fault your generosity. But within 5 years (5 additions to your household) your emergency fund has been depleted because you needed to tap into it to meet your additional expenses.
– You continue your generous immigration policy bringing in 1 such person into your household every year.
– In the 6th year, you start tapping the “nest egg” which was intended for your future security.
– In the 7th year, you are tearing through the “nest egg” 7 times faster and decades earlier than it was designed for
– In the 8th year, you are already having to ask others (neighbors, family) for help to “make ends meet”. They are generous, too, but your expenditures and debt continue to increase each year, with the addition of each person you take into your household.
– In the 9th year, you are forced to seek government assistance (tapping unknown taxpayers on top of family and friends) to help you continue your generous immigration into your family
– In 10 years from the start of your family immigration plan – you are broke, destitute, have lost everything you had, under a mountain of debt which increases each year and are yourself on tax-paid assistance.
– And, each year, you continue to generously bring one more person into your “family”.

That’s what’s happening in our country with the overly generous immigration policies. We’re taking in more than we can afford and piling debt upon debt year upon year.

RAISE will help to slow that pace and help us to grow economically before we try to be generous with what we don’t have.

SARGE
4 years ago

Don’t get all these negitive likes on my comments. You all sound like your reading the the same text over and over. Didn’t any of you get the hiring white people thing. The young educated white people are going to make great carpenters or plumbers or mechanics or welders or this list could go on and on. Youve got millions of people thats never worked a day in their lives, now all of a sudden, after soaking up their parents money for 10 years theyre faced with fending for themselves. So according to you all communism is going to be their answer.
I think most of you are about the same age of me. I did 2 tours in nam. Ive had hundres of employees and I know the work force thats available. Out in real life, nobodys talking communism, they’re just getting by. I havent had a white person, or come to think of it, a black person ask for work in years! IN FACT I’ve never had a black person on my payroll, ever! Thats not a reflection on me. They just never asked for a job. So when I need a hard worker to do really hard work, guess what I end up with? You got it. You all need to get your noses out of politically charged biased BS and talk about real life. In real life you go to work, you take care of your family and have a good time. There’s no time for communism. Communism is for poor people, and i doubt any of you commentors are poor.

SARGE
4 years ago

Again, all this talk about the dems building their base, I’ve been politically aware since the late 60s, and am I missing something? Haven’t the dems lost over a 1000 seats in government since 2010? I live in lil Tijuana, well thats what I call it, in San Diego, I’m retired, so I see whats going on pretty much, anyway, I didn’t notice any mexican crowd at the polls. In fact, not a one!!! Seriously, not a one. I anticipated a rush to my polling station, nevered happened. Could it be, i mean this respectfully, that a lot of you commentors get stuck in a rut and just repeat what you hear? Maybe you all need to come up with your own original ideas. Get a grip on yourselves, communism isn’t going to happen in America. This story keeps getting traction from everyone because they can’t think for themselves.

HAM
4 years ago
Reply to  SARGE

Do you seriously believe the Mexican base (or any other illegals base) would actually show up at the polls to vote? They would have voted by mail. People have already tested the California idea of preventing illegal voting. THEY dont care as long as the illegals vote for Democrats!

SARGE
4 years ago
Reply to  HAM

You would think if you were a legal mexican you would relish going to the polls to vote. Wouldn’t you be so proud to vote, you’d want to get one of those stickers to show everyone you voted. So you fixating on illegals, we’re talkimg about immigrants period. I dont see them using the mail in ballot.

mike
4 years ago
Reply to  HAM

“A good communist finds a use for everything. Nothing is more useful than a useful idiot. —–V. Lenin”
Certainly applies to some of out pro-immigration leftist politicians doesnt it?

SARGE
4 years ago

I always go back to the thought, why do white people want to give away all their sh-t. I know you intellectuals can use your theories and communism bs to go on and on about why this and that, but it boils down to all you white people wanting to give away all your sh-t. It isnt communism, its American greed thats going to be the end to America. Stop hiring all these unskilled, uneducated brown people and hire a couple educated white guys to mow your lawn and pick your fruit. Or better yet, find yourself some middle aged white people that havent worked in nion 6-8 yrs. That outa work out real well.

June Vendetti
4 years ago

I support the RAISE Act. I think it will be good for our country. There are too many taking advantage of America’s good nature! Either that, or our Gov’t agencies are very lenient with our money. Over the past 8 years, immigration has been a major problem. This type of reform makes it very clear that if you come to this county, you will need to make a positive contribution to it. Patrolling the borders, keeping unwanted criminals out, will effectively ensure domestic tranquillity for all.

PaulE
4 years ago

The RAISE Act would merely be reverting U.S. Immigration policy to what existed prior to the disastrous Ted Kennedy immigration reform of the 1960’s. Immigration based on actual economic merit to society, self sufficiency and the ability to quickly join the ranks of the productive, taxpaying class in a meaningful way, as opposed to basing immigration on feel good, lets bring in tens of millions of low skill, largely illiterate people who magically end up being a massive drain of taxpayer funds but also vote, illegally in many, many cases, for Democrats. Of course Democrats will oppose the RAISE Act en mass. That is a given. The very reason for Ted Kennedy’s original immigration reform back then was to flood the country with a whole new base of dependent Democrat voters. So anything that jeopardizes that inflow will face a combined backlash on both media and political fronts.

What will be telling is how much or how little support establishment Congressional Republicans give to this bill. So far I have NOT heard of too many Republican members of Congress bring read the riot act by voters back in their home districts and states for the wasted 7 months we’ve all just experienced. So my sense from most of usual suspects is that the RAISE Act will get precious little support from the establishment GOP. Since the Chamber of Commerce likes low skill, low cost (to the businesses that employ them anyway) illegal labor, the likes of McConnell, Ryan, Flake, McCain, Graham, Rubio, etc. will say “comprehensive immigration reform” (amnesty for illegals) is the way to go.

Plus since Trump said he likes the RAISE Act, that gives establishment Congressional Republicans another justification to say they hate it. They all seem to think that the path to holding on to their seats, even as members of the minority in a Democrat controlled House or Senate after the 2018 elections, is to continue to spit in the faces of Republican voters and either do nothing or advocate for progressive policies. So it will be interesting to see how Congress acts in September after they come back from summer recess.

Rik
4 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

Hi PaulE, I really believe that when the 2020 election comes, these so-called Republicans will experience the anger of disappointing voters and yes, Trump WILL BE re-elected. Maybe then these elected beaureaucrats will understand that We the People, have had it with their lies and phony attitudes!!! … But it’s time to put the “Progressives” in their rightful place, put them on the defensive by calling them what they really are … Communists!

PaulE
4 years ago
Reply to  Rik

Hi Rik,

Well I wasn’t going to go there, since the 2020 election is so far away at this point. However, since you brought it up, here’s my take. The real question you have to ask yourself is if the anti-Trump, pro-establishment wing of the Republican Congress continues the exact same “We can’t do anything, because we don’t want to do anything that Trump or the people want and expect us to do” act that they’ve done for the last 7 months for the remainder of Trump’s term, whether Trump will even want to run for re-election in 2020. Trump is after all a highly successful businessman, who is used to getting things done and delivering on his commitments to a large degree. His expectation, which was NOT unreasonable, was that if he won the Republican controlled Congress would work to quickly pass his agenda. Certainly he did not expect Republicans in Congress would work so actively to ensure almost none of his agenda was ever enacted. Which is exactly what they have done to date, no matter how well various members of Congress lie to the American public. If Congress continues to refuse to seriously work on getting his stated agenda passed, which is what they are doing, for the balance of his first term, why would he want to run for another four year term when nothing he committed to the American people can get through Congress? Think about it for a minute. While I would certainly like Trump to serve two full terms, he ran with the view of getting big things done for the country. Making real change that would be positive for the majority of Americans and getting the country back on the right direction. Not simply to sit in the White House, while Congress pursues their own agenda.

Say for example it’s early summer 2019 and Obamacare is still around in its present horrific form. It just costs a whole lot more due to 20 to 25 percent annual premium and deductible hikes each year. Congressional Republicans have only agreed to subsidize the insurance companies in late 2017, on an open-ended basis, in order to get the insurance companies to continue selling the same bloated, massively over-priced healthcare insurance that currently exists. Say across the board tax reform never got done, because the only thing the establishment GOP wanted to enact was a tax cut for large corporations. Everything else got pushed out to “sometime in the future”. Code for “We don’t care about that stuff” in political speak terms.. Which is exactly what various members of the GOP leadership have already said numerous times this month in various TV and radio interviews. So real tax reform and any significant tax cuts for small businesses and the middle class, which would have been the main force to propel the economic growth rate up to the levels Trump promised is abandoned. Real GDP is stuck in the 2.75 to 3.0 range as a result of only getting modest tax cuts for the large corporation through Congress. The GOP of course never got around to passing legislation and funding for the border wall. Infrastructure spending got bogged down in various Congressional committees more concerned with what pork they could stuff into a potential bill than any real projects. So nothing to show to the American people there either. Meanwhile the now Democrat controlled House or Senate, as a result of voters throwing out just enough establishment GOP types to shift at least one house of Congress back to the Democrats, is ignoring Trump completely and frantically working on both comprehensive immigration reform legislation (amnesty for illegals), that a new Democrat President can sign on day one in 2020, along with single-payer legislation. All while the Democrats were also salivating over the prospect of regaining even more Congressional seats in 2020 by highlighting how little the GOP accomplished in the last four years.

So under those kinds of realistic conditions, which is pretty much what will happen if the Republicans come back from this summer recess and just continue with the same “do nothing” attitude they left with, it’s not even certain Trump would even want to run for re-election in 2020? Again, I would have expected to hear about numerous GOP members of Congress being grilled by their constituents over the recess, but so far almost nothing. So the message these Congressional GOP folks are likely to come away with is that they can continue to get away with doing pretty much nothing. That it is OK to NOT enact any of the Trump agenda and face no voter fallout. That’s certainly not the message I expected the people would have sent Congress.

Rik
4 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

Hi PaulE, I agree with you on your analysis, but what if and it’s a huge what if Trump decides that yes he’s had enough of being stymied by his own party that he “exposes” these “phony” Republicans as the Communists they AND the whole Democratic Party has become? … After all, he’ll have nothing to lose by doing so. He can reach the people en mass with his social tweets. He can put ALL these Commies on the defensive. They and their media who are already disbelieved would be exposed and by hammering that message constantly HE CAN WIN A 2ND TERM. He can easily point out why nothing got accomplished and why? … PUT THESE COMMUNISTS ON THE DEFENSIVE, explain what Communism is and show the people who is responsible for failing them. If so, I believe it’s our ONLY CHANCE of SAVING OUR COUNTRY. Otherwise, all is lost forever and America becomes another Venezuela!!!

PaulE
4 years ago
Reply to  Rik

Hi Rik,

Please re-read my last post to Ivan above. It explains quite clearly why the only people that would be listening to Trump are the people that already support Trump. They rest of the country do not and will not listen to anything Trump “exposes”, because they either 1) actively support the socialist agenda of the Democrat Party and its propaganda arm the mainstream media and will thus completely ignore anything Trump says or 2) they don’t have the mental capacity, for the reasons I’ve mentioned above as well, to effectively process any information Trump may “expose”. I don’t know how much plainer I can make it. Could Trump win re-election if he chooses to run for re-election in 2020, but Congress has passed almost nothing of his agenda by then? Maybe. However, as I mentioned before, what would be his compelling reason to even want to run for re-election in 2020, if he knew his second term would be as unproductive, due to continued Congressional obstruction of his agenda, as the first? You’re telling me why YOU want Trump to run, but not why he would want to run again. I agree with you that this right now is America’s last chance, not 2020, and so far we’re blowing it big time!

I spent my entire career working around highly successful people just like Trump. Focused, driven, very smart people, who are used to getting things done over the constant objections of the nah sayers and the status quo / do nothing types. In the private sector, there are multiple ways to neutralize or eliminate those obstructionist forces from the equation. In the federal government, many of those same options don’t exists, because the federal government is in so many ways completely unaccountable to anyone, unless you are in the position of running that particular government agency or department itself. While Trump can remove anyone who works for him in the executive branch of government, we’ve seen even his ability and lawful right to do that is resisted by the forces committed to progressive (socialist) change in the case of Trump’s firing of Comey. Thus a Special Counsel, in the form of Robert Mueller, whose sole mission to find something, anything with which he can bring down the Trump Presidency. That’s why Mueller has hired all the DNC and Clinton lawyers to be on his staff. It’s a taxpayer-funded witch hunt against Trump.

Trump however can’t fire members of the legislative branch of government, the Congress, who are actively obstructing his ability to enact his agenda which the people already voted for. They are a co-equal branch of government and only the voters can fire members of the legislative branch through their votes. Which by the way, they continue to use extremely poor judgement on by re-electing the same RINO’s over and over again. That is why I was hoping all the Trump supporters in the states where these RINO members of Congress come from would have used this summer recess to threaten the hell out of these members of Congress with either exigency recall petitions and votes or loss of their seats in Congress in the 2018 mid-terms. Instead I’ve seen almost no coverage anywhere of any such meetings occurring during this recess. So again, if nothing changes with the continual stalling and obstruction of getting Trump’s agenda through Congress, why would Donald Trump want to bother running for re-election in 2020?

Rik
4 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

Amac, why did you erase my response to PaulE??? … Is it because I’m urging President Trump to expose the entire Democratic Party AND ALL the Rinos AS THE COMMUNISTS THEY REALLY ARE? … And if so, Trump can win a 2nd term?

PaulE
4 years ago
Reply to  Rik

Well Rik, it seems this conversation was deemed “too hot” (politically incorrect) for AMAC, so they quickly buried the entire article in the “Related Articles” section. The equivalent of the garbage can for things to be disposed of. That way 99 percent of the people will never even look at it. Isn’t censorship grand? Too bad as the RAISE Act was actually a topic the average AMAC member should know about. If for no other reason than to see how the establishment GOP in Congress actually reacts to real immigration reform be proposed.

Anyway, as Trump calling the Democrat Party what they really are, do you honestly think most Republicans don’t already know what the Democrat Party really is? If there are a few Republicans that have been living in a cave for the last half century and still think of the Democrat Party as being the party of say JFK, then they are too stupid to see the truth even if you rub their face in it. Sorry to be so blunt, but those folks won’t see the light no matter what is done. They’re living in their own little dream world of self-delusion.

On the Democrat side, many of their voters are simply too ignorant to understand that reality as they continue to actively support people that are preaching the EXACT SAME policies espoused by every other socialist / communist leader around the world. Even as the results of socialism worldwide have been displayed on their TV’s time and time again over the decades. There is an old saying from Forest Gump of “You can’t fix stupid” and it applies to them. So Trump calling the Democrat Party what it really is would make no difference. The rest of the Democrat voters already know what the Democrat Party really is and they fully support it. If you ever watched any televised coverage of the DNC over the last decade, you would have seen groups like Communist Party America and many other socialistic and communistic groups featured front and center on the main floor of the conventions. They haven’t been hiding in the shadows for quite a while now. So again, Trump saying what the Democrat Party really is would do nothing.

Again, we get back to the question of if Trump can’t get the RINO’s to pass any of his agenda, because they don’t agree with it and simply don’t want to while they still control both houses of Congress, why would he even want to run for a second term? Like I said, simply sitting in the WH for another four years would provide no personal satisfaction if he can’t get his agenda enacted. He’s a results oriented person just like most successful people are in the private sector. That means getting things done. He’s a do’er, not a talker like 90 percent of Congress is. They are all quite content to endless talk about change and reform and whatever else, but never actually do much of it at all. Trump ran because he saw the direction the country was on and realized that electing another RINO like Bush, Kasich, Rubio, etc. would have done nothing to get things back on track. The only difference between them and the Democrats is the speed in which socialistic policies are enacted.

So if Republican voters really want Trump to run for a second term, they have to find a way to get the point across to their “do nothing” Republican members of Congress that you either start fast-tracking the entire Trump agenda through Congress and get at least 50 percent of enacted before the 2018 mid-terms or every one of them up fore-election will be gone. People in all those states should be lining up real conservative Republican challengers to the current patch of idiots RIGHT NOW. That is if they actually care. If it is all empty talk on the part of voters from those states, then they will do nothing and be content with saying they voted for Trump in 2016 and that’s it. I don’t know how much plainer I can make and NOT be censored by AMAC.

Rik
4 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

Hi PaulE, I agree the average Democrat is stupid, so stupid in fact, they DON’T KNOW they’re voting for Communism. By Trump pointing it out on social media, people would be forced to question and watching the Commies “deny” and scream will bring the focus on them to defend themselves. As you say, they’ve been front and center but the average person isn’t paying attention and putting the Commie Democrats and Rinos on defensive would certainly be fun to watch. … Joe McCarthy, where are you?

Ivan Berry
4 years ago
Reply to  Rik

Rik, it’s obvious that the average Democrat, instead of Questioning, they just do not care. Communism to them is better than current Republicanism as depicted by the establishment.

PaulE
4 years ago
Reply to  Ivan Berry

Exactly Ivan. In almost all the conversations I have every week with dozens of self-admitted Democrats, Socialists and even a few Communists that don’t start off every sentence by shouting obscenities, the Democrats by and large are NOT intellectually inquisitive in any way. There is no critical thinking there. There is no trying to broaden their understanding of any issues. They are, for lack of a better term, the personification of useful idiots plain and simple. All they know and all they care to know is that the media says Democrat politicians are all good and ALL Republicans are inherently evil and bad. When a Democrat politicians like Bernie Sanders or Maxine Waters speaks to the media, the media all uniformly praise them as “guiding America to a new and better future”, while republicans are called liars, morons, and the rest of the usual list of insults.

Democrats could care less what Trump says. He could go on TV every day for the next month and say the Democrat Party of today is completely controlled by various socialist and communist organizations and various wealthy sponsors. Trump could go on to list every single organization and who financially provides the backing for each group. It would do NOTHING in terms of getting through the average Democrat voter. They don’t care! Worse is they don’t have the intellectually capacity to truly grasp any of it. Rik thinks that if Trump just speaks the plain truth, that the average Democrat voter will suddenly wake-up and realize the truth about what the Democrat Party truly is. They can’t wake up, because there is no underlying intelligence or critical thinking skills there.

Trump could even do a series of televised broadcasts where he shows how each socialist policy, like economic justice, social justice, so-called economic equality, etc. that the Democrat Party advocate for actually play out in the real world. Take economic equality as an example. He could show how it has played out in Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Zimbabwe, and a few other countries. All the politicians of those countries used the exact same phrases to sell the exact same policies to the people of those countries in order to be voted into power. Then he could show how economic equality was implemented in each country, all of which followed the exact same model of nationalization, confiscation, high taxation, hyper-regulation and the revising of the all the country’s own laws to make it all perfectly legal. Then he could show the final outcome of that economic equality as demonstrated by the collapsed economies of all those countries, the complete devaluation of their money, the total abject poverty, starvation and suffering of the average people in all those countries. All while the ruling elite live like modern day kings off that stolen wealth. None of it would set off any little light bulbs in the heads of the vast majority of Democrat voters. They wouldn’t care!

As for the media, they would all come out, FOX included now that the Murdock boys have tossed most of the conservatives out and given the remaining bodies still in seats a new progressive script to stick to, and slam Trump as either a racist, bigot, idiot, incompetent fool, the second coming of Hitler, etc. to denounce anything and everything he said. Every newspaper and every TV news show would paint Trump as insane and in need of immediate impeachment. Rik’s vision of the Democrats being put on the defensive by Trump would never happen. The media would paint the Democrat Party as the party of sanity and the future. All goodness and light. While the Republicans would be portrayed as “out of touch with the common man” and evil nationalists”. The RINO Republicans, sensing the media would turn on them quickly if they didn’t fall in-line and immediately join the chorus in denouncing Trump, would of course quickly do so. McCain, Graham, Rubio, McConnell, Ryan, Flake, and the rest of the RINO league would parade one after the other in front of the cameras to distance themselves even further from Trump.

Comments?

Diane Sanfilippo
4 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

why do we bother with AMAC if this is ‘too sensitive’ – is the only not ‘too sensitive’ any arguments over healthcare? Why did we join AMAC? For the life of me I haven’t figured that one out yet! Doubt we will renew.

PaulE
4 years ago

Hi Diane,

To answer your question, I originally joined AMAC because it claimed to be a conservative organization setup to counter AARP, which is in complete lock-step with the Democrat Party and its socialist agenda. Big government, under socialism, is the answer to everything. You must fall in-line with what the government tells you to do, because government knows best and you, the public, are simply too stupid to be allowed to make any decisions for yourself. You need to be managed and regulated by the government in all aspects of your life. Typical hallmarks of socialism, which is what the Democrat Party represents today.

AMAC promised conservative solutions and a platform for getting those ideas heard in Washington. However after AMAC started to actually publish their so-called “conservative solutions” to its members, it became quite clear to me and many others that AMAC was in actually just AARP-lite. Their detailed solutions, which they released to the membership last year in a series of weekly articles, for Obamacare, SS, and several other issues were in fact very progressive (socialist) in nature. Merely lightly watered down versions of what already existed. Those were the so-called conservative alternatives AMAC had already been running around Washington lobbying for on our behalf. Lets just say the membership was NOT pleased and let AMAC know it. So after several weeks of several hundred members posting their objections to AMAC’s less than conservative solutions and being completely ignored as AMAC continued to try and justify their progressive solutions and continued lobbying for their adoption in Washington, many members simply quit. Myself included. Why would I continue to support an organization financially, if they do NOT represent the fiscal and constitutionally conservatives values I believe in? Everyone pf course has to make their own decision on that point themselves. That is what choice is all about in a still free society. At least for now anyway. I only post here to stay in touch with a few of folks who continue to maintain their membership and to occasionally offer up a conservative perspective or correct factual errors on some of the articles. Anyway, hope that answers your question.

Scottar
4 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

Yep, it seems a majority of voters now consider medicaid an entitlement even though it pays out more then it takes in. Next step, single payer. Seems like we have too many sheeple on the government feeding trough. They expect too much from the grubmint. You want real reform, get rid of the middle guy- big government, any which way you can.

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