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With Dems Demoralized, Conditions Right for Historic Wave

AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Roman

It is now April of 2022, and in less than 7 months, American voters will go to the polls to elect 36 governors, 35 Senators, and all 435 members of the House of Representatives. With time running out, and Joe Biden’s approval ratings not only failing to improve, but actually falling, the question is increasingly turning to not whether there will be a Republican wave, but just how large it will be. If the numbers are anywhere near accurate, the answer may well be something unprecedented in recent memory. A look at polling in April, final poll numbers, and actual results from recent election cycles proves instructive:

CyclePolls in AprilFinal AverageResult
2022R+3.3%??
2020D+8.2%D+6.8%D+3.1%
2018D+6.2%D+7.3%D+8.2%
2016D+2.3%D+.6%R+1.1%
2014D+2.5%R+2.4%R+5.7%
2012R+2.8%R+.2%D+1.2%
2010R+3.2%R+9.4%R+6.8%

What can we infer from the above pattern? First, the current GOP leads are not unprecedented for April of an election year, but they are the first time Republicans have led in the generic ballot for Congress since 2012, and the margin of 3.3% is greater than that at this time in both 2012 and 2010. Of course, in 2012, Democrats staged a comeback which saw not only Barack Obama defeat Mitt Romney in the presidential race, but Democrats narrowly win the popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, even if they failed to win a majority. 2010, on the other hand, saw a GOP landslide gain of 63 seats.

This brings up another observation. Generally, the party with momentum in April continued to gain strength over the course of the year, while the party in trouble continued to lose support. Republicans were stronger in November than they were in April in 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2020. Democrats showed the same pattern in 2012 and 2018.

Democrats, desperate for any scrap of hope they can latch onto, will rush to embrace the comparison with 2012 as evidence that, despite current polling numbers, they may not be doomed. That may be true if, like Obama, Joe Biden is able to bring his approval rating back up to 51% by election day. But that is not really a revelation. If Joe Biden’s approval rating was 51% rather than the 41% it is now, it is possible the Democrats would even be ahead. What should be more worrying for Democrats was that even with their best candidate of the last 20 years running what was probably one of the best Presidential campaigns of the period against Mitt Romney, Obama was only able to turn a 2.8% deficit for House Democrats into a 1.2% lead, which was not enough for the party to win a majority.

In 2022, Democrats are starting from an even worse position (a 3.3% deficit versus a 2.8% one). As a result, repeating Obama’s achievement would only get them to a .7% popular vote victory, which would still almost certainly produce a Republican House majority. In fact, given the new redistricting maps, it would likely result in something like a 227-208 majority – and that is the absolute best historic case for Democrats.

It is also not a probable scenario. Joe Biden is not Barack Obama, something that should have been established in 2020 when, rather than increasing his lead during the campaign, he was out-campaigned and out-worked by a COVID-afflicted Donald Trump. So far, Joe Biden’s numbers have only moved in one direction since his inauguration – down. Neither the end of COVID restrictions (and the administration continues to resist lifting mask requirements for airports and trains) nor the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has reversed this slide. With rising concern over parental rights in schools and a summer of pent-up demand for gas, it is unclear where exactly any rebound for Biden will come from. Hence the most probable scenario is not that Democrats will recover from their current position but that they will fall further.

The question then is: how far does history indicate they are likely to fall? The closest numbers to April 2022 are those from April 2010, when Republicans led the generic ballot by 3.2% compared with 3.3% now. That lead went on to grow to 9.4% in the final polls and a 6.8% result on election day. The gap between the final polls and election day is indicative of the effect of incumbency. Democrats went into 2010 with a lot of longtime incumbents who overperformed even as they were losing, such as Gene Taylor in Mississippi, who lost by 4% in a district McCain had won 69% of the vote in. Democrats have far fewer of those incumbents in 2022, not least because a number already lost reelection in 2020 when Democrats lost seats in Charleston, South Carolina, and Oklahoma City. In turn, Democrats are starting from a lower baseline (222 seats in 2022 v. 256 seats in 2010), meaning a loss of 63 seats is much less likely.

Ultimately, however, the 2010 comparison makes sense. The dynamics were set in stone by April of 2010. Obama’s agenda had either passed in a mutilated form, as with Obamacare or failed following Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts. All that remained was for Democrats to pray that things would turn around, and they didn’t. For this reason, it is plausible the current 3.3% lead in April of 2022 will grow to 8-9% in the polls by November and produce a 7%-8% GOP victory result.

The other two possible comparisons are 2014 and 2016. In 2014, Democrats actually led at this point, by 2.5%, only to see that erode until they eventually lost by 5.7%. In 2016, a similar 2.3% lead turned into a 1.1% deficit. The latter would suggest a 7% or so GOP lead in November if applied this year, while the 2014 example would produce a whopping 11.5% margin.

While something around a 7% margin seems most probable, not least because it would match up with Republican margins in 2010 (6.8%) and 2014 (5.7%), the 11.5% one would be historic. Only once in 46 years has a party achieved a 10%+ margin, Democrats in 2008 (10.6%). Republicans have not achieved that margin since the 1920s.

While a 7% margin would be enough for Republicans to win a large House majority, take the Senate, and probably win governorships in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, as well as hold onto Georgia and Arizona, it is difficult to imagine what an 11.5% margin would look like. It might well see Democrats reduced to just 12 governorships, and could even see New York in play. Republicans would probably win Connecticut and Oregon along with New Mexico.

Is that possible? The odds are on a 6-7% margin as in 2010 and 2014, but there are reasons to believe the trajectory of 2022 more closely mirrors 2014 than it does 2010 or 2016. Both 2010 and 2016 saw polarized races between Democrats who had enraged silent majorities (the Tea Party movement in 2010, and MAGA in 2016) and that mobilization caused unprecedented turnout for Republican candidates. But Democratic support did not collapse. Obama, for all his failures, retained the core support of 45% of the public even at his lowest points in 2010. More Republicans voted, but Democrats still voted.

Something different happened in 2014. Turnout was low. A mere 36.5% of registered voters turned out. The 40 million votes Republican candidates received in 2014 were, in fact, 10% less than the 45 million they won in 2010. But Democrats fell from 39 million votes in 2010 to 36 million in 2014. In effect, rather than Republicans being mobilized and Democrats demoralized or vice versa, both parties, were demoralized. This is even more dramatic when compared to 2018, when both parties were motivated, and Republicans increased their vote total from 40 million in 2014 to 51 million in 2018, only losing because Democrats increased theirs from 36 million to 61 million.

What if, however, there were an election where Republicans were mobilized, even to just a 2018 level, but Democrats were demoralized to a 2014 one? Even assuming Democrats manage a vote total 15% above their 2014 total and Republicans only match 2018, the result would be a Republican lead of 51 to 41 million votes or 55.5%-44.5%. That would produce almost exactly the 11.5% scenario discussed above.

While perhaps unprecedented, all current signs point to Democratic demoralization. Build Back Better is dead. Student loan relief has not happened. Democrats are at odds with each other. Biden is fading. Harris is uninspiring and busy feuding with Buttigieg. Democrats on the left demonize Manchin and Sinema. Moderates attack AOC. Why should any vote?

All the ingredients are present for a historic landslide. And the only thing Democrats seem to be doing to avert it is praying.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.      


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Gtkx
2 months ago

No matter the details of who are ahead and recognized, voting machines, and counting systems remain as the 2020 manner Dem will win. I am nervous about not hearing any progress.

tika
1 month ago
Reply to  Gtkx

right on!. it’s been “crickets” from Jan. 6th to today about concrete steps in place to stop illegal elections.; all “what we ARE DOING”, not any” what WE HAVE DONE”.

Gil
2 months ago

Overturn Roe vs. Wade as unconstitutional, which it is. Many people, women especially, vote democrat because of this one topic. They don’t want to be strapped with a child they don’t want and we have made them actually believe that abortion is okay and without consequences. Democrat politicians know this. While welfare and “freebies” provide them with support, they also have a strong support because of the abortion freedom. Both are unAmerican, immoral and corrupt, to say the least. God is watching.

Marla Blady
2 months ago

A landslide would be nice. Even better would be honest, patriotic and capable Republicans. However, unless the voting can be honest and legitimate then we will have them not only back in power but totally entrenched in all election districts! No more shady tactics! Give us honest and fair elections!

Karen
2 months ago

If the Dems are praying, it could only be to Satan!

Rich
2 months ago

We can only hope and PRAY that the socialist/democrats lose in a monumental way in November. Just remember, this is the party of lies, hate, and deceit. There is nothing that they won’t do to win. The worst thing that conservatives can do is assume that this election is in the bag. The socialists will start throwing out “incentives” to attract those without a moral compass trying to turn the tide just enough. Pray hard folks that God Himself will open the eyes of enough people that we can turn this thing around. The very future of our country depends on it.

Jimmyd
2 months ago

Death to the Democrat party, enough said. No… I’m not going to be civil with these SOBs not now not f-Ing ever.

John Jackson
2 months ago

Well the Democrats are always praying but you can believe that’s it definitely not to a God in heaven it’s to their God that has horn’s you know the one that they call the devil. With all of the child molesters and baby killers. In their ranks it’s just got to be Satan himself! You will never make me believe any different it’s just that simple!????

Bruce E Stevenson
2 months ago
Reply to  John Jackson

Spot on John. Maranatha.

Teresa
2 months ago

If they (Democrats) are praying, I am not sure who it they are praying to.

Karen
2 months ago
Reply to  Teresa

AMEN!

M. Kevin Mewborn
2 months ago

Democrats? Praying? Uh, I somehow doubt that…

A. Grace
2 months ago

If we have an honest and fair election there’s no reason we can’t take a large percentage of the House and the Senate. I know that there are a lot of Democrats who are disgusted with the way the politicians they have elected have destroyed America. Voting is so important to take America’s freedom back. I have prayed for many months now that God would help us take America back. Please say a little prayer everyday that God will help us win the elections in 2022 and 2024 so we once again will have one Nation, under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.

Annette Grace
2 months ago

If we have a fair and honest election there’s no reason why we can’t take a large percentage of the House and the Senate. I know there are a lot of Democrats who are disgusted with the way the politicians they elected have destroyed America. I have been praying for many months now that God will help us take back America. Please consider saying a little prayer every day for God to help us win the election in 2022 and 2024 so we once again will have one Nation, under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.

Anthony Dellisola
2 months ago

The Democrats know how to manipulate the votes so we need better control at the polls.

COLMac
2 months ago

Sounds good, but don’t underestimate the ability of the Democratic Socialist/Marxist/Communist Party to cheat and again commit fraud in future elections!

Blondie
2 months ago

Things are looking good for the States where the cheating did not occur. For the swing States, they are hard at work trying to ensure that lines are drawn, machines are ready, mail in ballots are printed in triplecet, and campaign smear tactics are figured out for the big cheat, part 2. I hope the Dems spiral down in every race, circle the drain and drown in their sorrows.

Harry
2 months ago

With the ability of Democrats to cheat hundreds of ways and ways we have never seen, If I were a Republican congressional candidate, I wouldn’t count my chickens too soon. The Dems are cheaters and will cheat!!!

A. Grace
2 months ago
Reply to  Harry

If we have an honest and fair election there’s no reason we can’t take a large percentage of the House and the Senate. I know that there are a lot of Democrats who are disgusted with the way the politicians they have elected have destroyed America. Voting is so important to take America’s freedom back. I have prayed for many months now that God would help us take America back. Please say a little prayer everyday that God will help us win the elections in 2022 and 2024 so we once again will have one Nation, under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.

Judy K.
2 months ago

I believe one way we could ensure voting integrity is to have separate voting precincts for each party. Dems collect and count Dem votes, Repubs collect and count Repub votes and so on. Policing the Republican and Independant precincts would be a must. Hidden video surveillance of all Republican and Independant collection sites would also be imperative. We know what the Dems would try to do. They will do whatever it takes to steal an election, even by creating some kind of diversion. They are completely evil.
I believe it would be worth a try. Let’s PRAY that permanent vote by mail bill doesn’t pass.

Judy K.
2 months ago
Reply to  Judy K.

Oh, the Left are SO devious they would would go so far as to have a member of BLM or Antifa break into their own precinct to steal ballots and blame it on Republicans. I still think it’s worth a try. AND NO MACHINES!! Many Conservatives could volunteer to count ballots, I would be one!

Judy K.
2 months ago

And as soon as they pass the permanent vote by mail bill, this article to raise up Hope’s of getting our country turned around will be moot. The Devil is devious and he has the Progressives in the palm of his hand.

PRAY!!!!!!!

spitfire?1940
2 months ago

Don’t worry,McConnell and the ‘Rinos’ can still screw it up.

Marie Langley
2 months ago

Hate to be Debbie Downer but the reality is the only chance we have to save America is if we take back the House and the Senate. If we don’t accomplish this then we are doomed and a Republican will never get elected to the White House again. I don’t want to believe this but I’m afraid it’s true.
That is why our southern border is so open. Biden knows that these illegals will vote Democrat because they were allowed to come in and they get free stuff courtesy of us hard working tax payers. It’s all so disgusting. My grandparents are rolling over in their graves right now.

Bill
2 months ago
Reply to  Marie Langley

Well said Marie. They stole the last presidential election and despite all of our proof still got away with it. So if they now know that the odds are against them what makes anyone think they won’t try it again I am a big supporter of Trump but hope he doesn’t run again. If you think about everything they did in his four years in office to get him out do you think they won’t pull everything out of their play book to keep him getting in again. If all conservatives don’t stand together to expose the left for what they truly are we will never win another election.

JED S.
2 months ago

2022’s “red wave” is virtually assured. The uncertainty now lies with the Republican Party. What will they do with their restored congressional majorities? Where is the modern day equivalent of Speaker Gingrich’s well crafted “Contract With America”? I fear the Republicans will, as has so often occurred in the past, not perform as a cohesive unit and wield power effectively . Demonrats are repugnant; however, unlike their Republican’t counterparts, they happily goose step along together for the pursuit of their party’s political objectives.

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